Here's the sensitivity of the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate to the 2018 State Budget.

The Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate is one of the fundamental economic assumptions that positively impacts the 2018 State Budget (APBN) structure. In the 2018 APBN sensitivity analysis, every Rp 100 weakening of the Rupiah against the US dollar will boost state revenue by Rp 3.8-5.1 trillion and state expenditure by Rp 2.2-3.4 trillion. The budget surplus (deficit) will increase by Rp 1.7 trillion, while financing will decrease by Rp 0.2-0.1 trillion for every Rp 100 depreciation of the Rupiah against the US dollar.

For information, the Rupiah exchange rate in the 2018 APBN was pegged at Rp 13,400/US dollar, while the current exchange rate has weakened to Rp 14,391/US dollar. This means that the depreciation of the Rupiah could boost state revenue by approximately Rp 37.66-50.54 trillion. Similarly, state expenditure will increase by Rp 21.8-33.69 trillion. The budget surplus (deficit) will reach approximately Rp 16.85 trillion, while financing will decrease by Rp 1.98-0.99 trillion.

Besides the weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate, other macroeconomic fundamental assumptions that positively impact the 2018 APBN structure are economic growth, inflation, oil price increases (ICP), and oil and gas lifting. Increases in these variables can directly impact increased state revenue, particularly in tax revenue and non-tax state revenue (PNBP). The indirect impact will affect the increase in the Transfer to Regions and Village Funds budget, especially the General Allocation Fund (DAU).