IMF Projects Bright Economic Growth for ASEAN in 2024

In the October 2023 edition of its *World Economic Outlook* (WEO) report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects relatively bright economic growth for ASEAN countries in the coming year.

Of the 11 ASEAN countries, 8 are predicted to experience stronger economic growth in 2024, while 3 are expected to see stable growth.

The ASEAN countries projected to see stronger growth in 2024 are Cambodia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam.

Countries whose growth is forecast to remain stable are Indonesia, Laos, and Myanmar, with details as shown in the graph.

This outlook for the ASEAN economy is considered good compared to other regions. The IMF predicts that global economic growth will slow from 3% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024.

According to the IMF, several factors risk dampening global economic growth, including commodity price volatility.

"Commodity prices could become more volatile in the face of geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruptions," the IMF stated in its report.

"Oil prices have risen by around 25% due to OPEC+ supply cuts. Food prices remain elevated with the escalating war in Ukraine. Geoeconomic fragmentation is also driving up the cost of interregional commodity distribution," it continued.

The IMF also noted that several ASEAN countries could influence global mineral commodity prices, namely Indonesia and the Philippines.

"Under a net-zero emissions scenario, demand for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is projected to increase by 2030. This could significantly increase prices, given the difficulty in expanding mining capacity and the geographically concentrated nature of mining locations," said the IMF.

"For example, Chile and Peru account for about one-third of the world's copper mines, while Indonesia and the Philippines hold about half of the world's nickel-copper mines," it added.