Mexico's Trade Relationship Most at Risk If Trump Is Elected US President

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has compiled a score for several countries in the Trump Risk Index (TRI).

The United States (US) presidential election is scheduled for November 2024. A close contest between Democratic and Republican candidates is anticipated. Donald Trump, from the Republican party, is considered a strong contender for the presidency. The EIU considers this a significant event for the global economy and geopolitics.

The EIU report states that this index assesses each country's exposure to a Trump presidency. The TRI uses quantitative indicators to measure exposure further among the 70 largest US trading partners. The overall risk score is based on vulnerability assessments in three areas: trade, immigration, and security.

The derived indicators include bilateral trade balance, bilateral trade trends, current account balance, exports to the US, dependence on the US in goods trade, and free trade agreements with the US, which are then calculated into the overall trade pillar.

Mexico is considered the country most severely exposed to Trump's trade policies should he become president, with a score of 100 points—the maximum score.

According to Visual Capitalist, Mexico is the largest exporter to the US, with a trade surplus that can reach US$152 billion. Its main export commodities are automobiles and other sensitive exports such as aluminum and steel.

China is second with a score of 76.7 points. Visual Capitalist notes that if re-elected, Trump plans to impose tariffs of 60% or more on goods imported from China.

Canada is third with a score of 70.4 points. Vietnam is fourth with a score of 64.4 points, followed by Germany in fifth place with a score of 55.5%.

Japan scored 53.8; Taiwan, 41.4; India and Ireland each scored 37.2; and South Korea scored 36.5 points.

The EIU explains that Donald Trump would initiate sweeping policy changes across various sectors, from trade policy to national security, if he were to return to office.

"The global consequences of these changes mean that the implications of a Trump presidency warrant full exploration," wrote the EIU, as quoted on Monday (August 19, 2024).