Global E-commerce Market Share Projection to 2028: A Significant Increase?

ECDB, a German e-commerce research institute, analyzed and projected the global e-commerce market share until 2028.

There were years with proportions that did not increase significantly, even slowing down at times.

Specifically, the e-commerce share in 2018 reached 9.6% of the total global retail market. This figure increased to 10.7% in 2019.

Entering the COVID-19 pandemic year, the increase was quite significant, reaching 14.2% in 2020 and 16.1% in 2021.

However, the share decreased in 2022 to 15.5%. The figure then rose again to 16.3% in 2023.

ECDB then projected a 17.3% share for 2024. After that, projections frequently increased, albeit within a 1% range. The projection increased to 21% in 2028.

It should be noted that ECDB did not provide details on the differences between the years calculated in real terms and those projected.

Previously, ECDB stated that Indonesia is projected to have the highest e-commerce growth in the world in 2024, with a growth rate of 30.5%.

This projection is almost three times higher than the global average of 10.4%.

ECDB also calculated that total online retail sales from the 150 countries studied reached almost US$2.2 trillion in 2023. The global e-commerce market is dominated by China, with estimated revenue of US$2.17 trillion in 2023.

This projection was made using various techniques adapted to market behavior. Driving factors included in the calculation are gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, consumer spending per capita, internet penetration, and population.