Kompas Research and Development Survey: PDI-P's Electability Surpasses PKB's Among NU Voters

Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan declared Muhaimin Iskandar, the General Chairperson of the National Awakening Party (PKB) also known as Cak Imin, as his running mate for the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election last Saturday (September 2nd, 2023).

Anies's move is believed to be an attempt to garner votes from PKB's constituents, particularly Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) voters in East Java.

So, how significant is PKB's role in boosting support among NU voters nationally and in East Java?

Based on the August 2023 Kompas Research and Development survey, PKB is not the party that receives the highest number of votes from NU voter respondents. Nahdliyin (NU followers) mostly chose the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

The PDI-P, symbolized by the red bull, received 22.2% of the votes from the total NU voter respondents nationally. This was followed by Gerindra, which achieved an electability of 18.9%.

Meanwhile, PKB's electability among national NU respondents was significantly lower, at 10.2%.

This was followed by the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) which obtained 7.6% and 6.7% of the votes from the NU voter respondent base, respectively.

The research team then narrowed the scope of the study and specifically looked at the flow of votes from NU respondents in East Java. The results showed that PKB's electability was higher than nationally, at 18.6%. Its position was superior to Gerindra, which received 13.7% of the votes.

However, PKB's electability remained below PDI-P, which garnered 32.9% of the votes from NU voter respondents in East Java.

Nevertheless, PKB's electability among NU voters nationally and in East Java is still higher than that of Anies's supporting party, Nasdem.

The party led by Surya Paloh only garnered 7.6% of national NU respondent votes and 6.8% of NU respondent votes in East Java.

"The electoral potential of PKB and its political machinery certainly opens opportunities for the Anies-Amin pairing to garner support, although this step is still not easy," wrote the Kompas Research and Development team in their report on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023.

This periodic Kompas Research and Development survey involved 1,364 respondents randomly selected using a stratified systematic sampling method across 38 provinces in Indonesia.

Data collection was conducted from July 27th to August 7th, 2023, through face-to-face interviews. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 2.65% and a 95% confidence level.