Political

Lite

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026

Erlina Fury Santika 19/10/2026 13:19 WIB

Bagikan URL has been copied

Memuat...

SMRC conducted a semi-open presidential election simulation. Over seven months, Prabowo's electability has declined, now standing at only 9.8% in October 2026.

Electoral Trends of the Semi-Open Presidential Election Simulation for Four Figures in the SMRC Survey (November 2025-October 2026)

A Font Kecil
A Font Sedang
A Font Besar

Access single data

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026

Want to get more access to Data Stories with a more affordable price? Subscribe.

By subscribing, you join us in presenting quality data.

Get:

Premium Data Stories access
Comfortable reading without ads
Download data in XLS, PDF, and image format
Access to data source information

Basic

~~Rp100.000~~

Rp50.000/month

Professional

~~Rp100.000~~

Rp150.000/month

Institutional For organizations

We accept the following payments:

Some payment methods are still in the process of being activated.

Electoral Trends of the Semi-Open Presidential Election Simulation for Four Figures in the SMRC Survey (November 2025-October 2026)

Download

Source

A Small
A Medium
A Bigger

Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) conducted a semi-open presidential election simulation to measure the electability of several figures, including incumbent President Prabowo Subianto.

From November 2025 to October 2026, SMRC surveys show that Prabowo's electability trend has consistently dropped.

From a survey conducted in November 2025, his electability stood at 34.9%. It then dropped to 33.3% in February–March 2026, plummeted to 14.5% in July 2026, and fell significantly again to 9.8% in October 2026.

The vote share for Prabowo contrasts sharply with that of Dedi Mulyadi, the Governor of West Java, which has instead grown increasingly strong.

In the November 2025 survey, support for Dedi Mulyadi was at 19.7%. The figure then rose to 23.3% in February–March 2026, climbed again to 35% in July 2026, and has now increased to 35.5% in October 2026.

Dedi Mulyadi's vote share is the highest compared to other names, such as Anies Baswedan and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as shown in the chart.

Nevertheless, SMRC analyzed that Dedi may not necessarily run or be nominated by a political party for president.

"Dedi is currently a Gerindra cadre, so he might not compete if Prabowo is nominated again as president," SMRC wrote in a report published on Saturday (October 17, 2026).

This prompted SMRC to simulate Prabowo against other candidates, such as Gibran or Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY).

In this three-name simulation, Gibran received 29.7% of the votes, AHY 28.2%, Prabowo 22.7%, and the undecided voters accounted for 19.4%.

Based on these results, SMRC analyzed that support for Prabowo as an incumbent is very weak.

If the presidential election were held today, SMRC believes Prabowo could be defeated by other candidates.

According to SMRC's records, this October survey represents the steepest decline Prabowo has experienced in his two years of leadership.

"The sharp decline in Prabowo's electability over the past two years is closely tied to his performance, macro socio-political conditions perceived negatively by the public, and unfavorable ratings regarding the MBG and KDMP programs," SMRC stated.

This survey was conducted among 1,213 respondents aged 17 and above or married during October 1–10, 2026.

Of that total, 1,013 owned cell phones and were selected randomly using a double sampling method with telephone interviews. Meanwhile, 200 respondents without cell phones were chosen randomly through stratified multistage random sampling and interviewed face-to-face.

The sample was validated by comparing its demographics (region, gender, age, education, urban-rural distribution, ethnicity, religion) against the population. If significant differences were found, data weighting was applied so that the sample became proportional to the population.

The survey's margin of error is estimated at approximately ±2.9% at a 95% confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

Editor : Erlina Fury Santika

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

Related Data

SMRC Survey: Dedi Mulyadi’s Electability Surpasses Prabowo’s in October 2026

Prevalence of Inadequate Food Consumption in Manggarai Dropped by 0.26% Over the Last 5 Years

Mount Ibu Erupted Again This Afternoon (Monday, 19 October 2026)

Average School Duration of South Tangerang City Residents Increased to 12.1 Years

20,392 Hotspots Detected in Indonesia in the Last 24 Hours (Monday, 19 October 2026)

BBCA Becomes Top Foreign Net Sell Stock (October 12–16, 2026)

Latest Data Stories

Global Natural Gas Price Traded at US$3.1 /Mmbtu This Afternoon (Monday, 19 October 2026) Energy 19/10/2026, 15:08 WIB

Global Oil Price Drops to US$ 107.33 per Barrel (Monday, 19 October 2026) Market 19/10/2026, 14:43 WIB

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026 Political 19/10/2026, 13:19 WIB

South Buru Regency Government Regional Budget Realization as of October 2026 Economics & Macro 19/10/2026, 12:55 WIB

West Bangka Regency 2025 Economic Growth: Mining & Quarrying Sector Shows Strongest Performance Economics & Macro 19/10/2026, 12:31 WIB

Banggai Regency Local Own Revenue (LOR) Realization as of October 2026 Economics & Macro 19/10/2026, 12:08 WIB

Download

Source

19 October 2026

Name	Value	%
Inflasi yoy (Sep)	3,28%	+0.09
Inflasi mom (Agu)	0,21%	+0.35
Economic growth	5,11%	+0.08
Pertumbuhan ekonomi (yoy) (Q1)	5,61%	+4.08
Persentase kemiskinan (Mar)	8,07%	-0.18
Gini rasio (Sem2)	0,38	0.00
Nilai Tukar USDIDR	18	-0.17
PDB ADHK (Q2)	3.576,20	+3.73
Ekspor Migas (Agu)	992,20	+25.98
Neraca perdagangan (Agu)	3,55	+2,814.03
Impor Migas (Agu)	3,53	-6.37
Ekspor (Agu)	26,61	+1.51
Impor (Agu)	23,06	-11.63
Kunjungan Wisman (Agu)	1,60	+4.89
NTP (Jul)	116,16	+1.32

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026

Tags

Related Data

SMRC Survey: Dedi Mulyadi’s Electability Surpasses Prabowo’s in October 2026

Prevalence of Inadequate Food Consumption in Manggarai Dropped by 0.26% Over the Last 5 Years

Mount Ibu Erupted Again This Afternoon (Monday, 19 October 2026)

Average School Duration of South Tangerang City Residents Increased to 12.1 Years

20,392 Hotspots Detected in Indonesia in the Last 24 Hours (Monday, 19 October 2026)

BBCA Becomes Top Foreign Net Sell Stock (October 12–16, 2026)

Latest Data Stories

Market Data

Popular Data

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Drops Sharply to Only 9.8% in October 2026

Tags

Related Data

SMRC Survey: Dedi Mulyadi’s Electability Surpasses Prabowo’s in October 2026

Prevalence of Inadequate Food Consumption in Manggarai Dropped by 0.26% Over the Last 5 Years

Mount Ibu Erupted Again This Afternoon (Monday, 19 October 2026)

Average School Duration of South Tangerang City Residents Increased to 12.1 Years

20,392 Hotspots Detected in Indonesia in the Last 24 Hours (Monday, 19 October 2026)

BBCA Becomes Top Foreign Net Sell Stock (October 12–16, 2026)

Latest Data Stories

Market Data

Trending Topics

Popular Data