Survey Indicator: Khofifah-Emil Pair Shows Highest Electability in the 2024 East Java Gubernatorial Election

The Indonesian Political Indicator survey institute released its latest poll results regarding the electoral map in the 2024 East Java Regional Elections (Pilkada).

In a simulation of three gubernatorial candidate pairs in East Java, Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Dardak achieved the highest electability, reaching 61.2%.

In second place is the pair Tri Rismaharini and Zahrul Azhar Asumta, alias Gus Hans, who received 26% of the vote from respondents.

Then, the pair Luluk Nur Hamidah and Lukmanul Hakim are in the lowest position with an electability of 2.2%.

"Among Khofifah's two rivals, Risma has a relatively good chance of competing with Khofifah. Although for Luluk, if she wants to increase her electability, the public awareness of Luluk-Lukman must be boosted as much as possible," said Indikator's Principal Researcher Burhanuddin Muhtadi in an online survey presentation on Sunday (29/9/2024).

Burhanuddin stated that Risma has sufficient social and electoral capital to compete with Khofifah because she served as Mayor of Surabaya for two terms and as Minister of Social Affairs from 2020-2024.

"Looking at these figures, I expect Luluk to have a chance to catch up (with Khofifah), but electorally, Risma is more likely," he said.

The Indikator survey also found that 0.5% of respondents stated they would not vote or abstain. Furthermore, 10.2% of respondents had not yet decided on their support in the 2024 East Java Regional Elections.

This survey involved 1,000 respondents in East Java, with criteria of being 17 years of age or older, or married. Respondents were selected using a multistage random sampling method.

Data collection was conducted from September 9-14, 2024, through face-to-face interviews. The survey's margin of error is approximately 3.2% at a 95% confidence level.