Gauging the Strength of Islamic Political Parties: Their Voting Trends Since 1999

Islam-based political parties (parpol) have emerged since the early general elections (pemilu). However, throughout their history, not many Islamic parties have survived until the last general election in 2019.

According to CNN Indonesia, the Lingkar Survei Indonesia (LSI) classifies Islamic parties based on two aspects: public perception and expert opinion. LSI groups Islamic parties including PKB, PKS, PAN, PPP, PBB, Gelora, and Partai Ummat.

Five out of these seven parties have contested since the 1999 election. They are PKB, PKS, PAN, PPP, and PBB. The other two, Gelora and Ummat, were established in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the General Election Commission (KPU), the vote share of these five political parties has fluctuated.

In 1999, PKB was the party with the largest vote share among these five Islamic parties, with 13.32 million votes or 12.62% of the total valid national votes. This is a significant number, considering it was the first time Gus Dur's party competed.

Until the 2019 election, PKB consistently received the highest vote share among this group, exceeding 10 million votes. However, in 2009, its votes plummeted to 5.14 million or 4.95% of the total valid votes.

The Islamic-based party that has shown a tendency of increasing vote share is PKS. The graph shows PKS received a small number of votes in the 1999 election, only 1.43 million votes or 1.36%. However, afterward, the votes for the party, originally named Partai Keadilan (Justice Party), frequently increased, only slightly decreasing once in 2009.

PBB has been the party with the smallest vote share in this group. During five election periods, its votes increased only once, in 2004, with 2.97 million votes or 2.62% of the national valid votes.

(See also: History of PKB Votes in East Java and Nationally Since the 1999 Election: Can it Boost Anies?)

Challenges for Islam-based Political Parties in the 2024 Election

LSI observes that overall support for Islam-based parties is potentially declining in 2024. It could even be the worst in the history of free and fair elections in Indonesia.

LSI also cites three factors that have prevented these parties from ever winning a general election in Indonesia. CNN Indonesia mentions: firstly, the depoliticization of Islam during the New Order era through the single principle of Pancasila.

Secondly, Islamic parties are considered to lack innovation since the reform era. Thirdly, this group lacks strong figures to run in presidential elections (pilpres).

Furthermore, the Executive Director of Voxpol Center Research and Consulting, Pangi Syarwi Chaniago, stated that the emergence of many Islamic parties could split the Muslim vote, as reported by Tempo.co. This makes it difficult for Islamic parties to become a dominant force without one party with a strong voter base.

"The emergence of many Islamic parties will make the situation more complex. What was expected of Islamic parties as a strong force is instead divided among many parties," said Pangi in June 2023.

In his observation, some voters of nationalist parties come from Muslim backgrounds. This shows that some Muslim voters tend to choose nationalist parties as their political choice.

"Therefore, Islamic parties cannot rely solely on Muslim voters. This is the real problem," he said. Therefore, Pangi believes Islamic parties must have a solid cultural voter base.

The following are the vote shares of Islam-based parties from 1999-2019:

* 1999
PKB 13,321,837 votes (12.62%)
PK (Justice Party) 1,431,482 votes (1.36%)
PPP 11,313,037 votes (10.72%)
PAN 7,504,900 votes (7.11%)
PBB 2,046,773 votes (1.94%)

* 2004
PKB 11,989,564 votes (10.56%)
PKS 8,325,020 votes (7.34%)
PPP 9,248,764 votes (8.15%)
PAN 7,313,305 votes (6.44%)
PBB 2,970,487 votes (2.62%)

* 2009
PKB 5,146,302 votes (4.95%)
PKS 8,204,946 votes (7.89%)
PPP 5,544,332 votes (5.33%)
PAN 6,273,462 votes (6.03%)
PBB 1,864,642 votes (1.79%)

* 2014
PKB 11,292,151 votes (9.04%)
PKS 8,455,614 votes (6.77%)
PPP 8,152,957 votes (6.53%)
PAN 9,459,415 votes (7.57%)
PBB 1,822,908 votes (1.46%)

* 2019
PKB 13,570,097 votes (9.72%)
PKS 11,493,663 votes (8.19%)
PPP 6,323,147 votes (4.51%)
PAN 9,572,623 votes (6.74%)
PBB 1,099,848 votes (0.79%)

(See also: Kompas Research and Development Survey: PDI-P's Electability Surpasses PKB Among NU Voters)