Denny JA's LSI: PDI-P Most Likely to Win the 2019 Election

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) is the most likely party to win the 2019 legislative election. This is reflected in the LSI Denny JA survey, which shows that the electability of the party with the banteng (bull) logo has consistently been the highest since August-December 2018. In the December 2018 survey, PDIP's electability reached 27.7%, surpassing its closest competitor, Gerindra, by 14.8% (Gerindra's electability was 12.9%). Golkar came in third with 10% electability.

PDIP's electability consistently ranked first in five surveys, both before and during the campaign period. Furthermore, the party led by Megawati consistently maintained a lead of over 10 percentage points over its closest competitor.

(Read Databoks: Public Support for Winning Parties in the Legislative Election is Decreasing)

For information, PDIP won the 2014 legislative election with 18.9% of the vote. The Democratic Party won the 2009 election with 20.9%. Interestingly, the winning party's vote share has shown a downward trend, and no party has won two consecutive elections since the Reformasi era.