World Bank: Risk of Global Recession Increasing

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Adi Ahdiat 20/09/2022 15:20 WIB

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According to a World Bank report, at least two indicators currently suggest an increased likelihood of a global recession in the near future.

Annual Economic Growth Projections under a Global Recession Scenario (2022-2024)

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World Bank: Risk of Global Recession Increasing

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Annual Economic Growth Projections under a Global Recession Scenario (2022-2024)

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Geopolitical conflict, soaring commodity prices, a wave of inflation, and various conditions occurring this year put the global economy at risk of recession.

This was stated by the World Bank in a research report titled *Is a Global Recession Imminent?* released in September 2022.

"Our projections do not indicate a global recession in 2022-2023. However, based on experience from previous recessions, there are currently at least two signs that increase the likelihood of a global recession in the near future," the World Bank explained in its report.

"First, since 1970, every global recession has been preceded by a weakening of global economic growth, as has been happening recently," the report stated.

"Second, global recessions have always occurred alongside a decline in the economies of major countries," it continued.

According to the World Bank's projections, if a recession occurs, the global economy will only grow by 2.8% in 2022, then decline to 0.5% in 2023, and only begin to recover to 2% in 2024.

The World Bank also predicts that if a recession does occur, its impact will be felt more by developed countries than by developing countries.

In a global recession scenario, the World Bank estimates that the economies of developed countries could contract by 0.6% in 2023 and only grow by 1% in 2024.

Meanwhile, the economies of developing countries are predicted to remain positive, albeit slowing, as shown in the graph.

"Our analysis shows that the global economy can escape recession. However, this requires additional tightening in financial markets," the World Bank explained.

"More importantly, policymakers need to utilize all available options to address inflation and reduce the risk of economic slowdown," it continued.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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World Bank: Risk of Global Recession Increasing

World Bank: Risk of Global Recession Increasing

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