Indonesia Dominates the Global Thermal Coal Export Market by 2025

According to data from Kpler processed by Reuters columnist and former editor Gavin Maguire, Indonesia controlled the share of the global thermal coal export market in 2025.

Indonesia’s proportion reached 50% of total exports of the commodity last year.

That figure beat Australia, which sat in second position at 21%. Then Russia at 11%, South Africa at 6%, and other countries at less than 5%, as seen in the chart.

Maguire said utility systems across Asia are scrambling to cover a potential shortfall in critical coal supplies after Indonesian miners—the world’s largest coal producers—halted coal exports in the spot market as a form of protest against government plans to limit production.

In his writing, Maguire conveyed that an Indonesian coal mining official said exports tied to long-term contracts would continue, but spot shipments would be limited until a final decision is made regarding government quotas.

“The official also warned that even some long-term contracts are at risk as miners face unforeseen circumstances,” Maguire wrote on Wednesday (Feb. 4, 2026).

Indonesia is the main supplier for many of the world’s largest coal importers, including China, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

However, a prolonged period of weak global prices has pushed the Indonesian government to propose production cuts and the implementation of quotas, with the aim of raising export prices and tax revenues.

In Maguire’s findings, coal mining companies in Indonesia have also threatened to carry out layoffs and close mines if production cuts are forced. This condition has put the government under pressure to find a point of compromise before mining activity and export flows truly come to a halt.

“The government has previously shown a hard stance toward the mining sector. In 2022, the government temporarily suspended coal exports due to shortages of supplies for domestic power plants,” Maguire said.

That suspension triggered a sharp surge in global coal prices at the time. Meanwhile, benchmark Asian seaborne thermal coal futures have risen 9% and reached their highest level in more than a year following this latest intervention.

Indonesian Government Denial

Regarding reports of production cuts, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed that it has not issued approvals for the coal work plan and budget (RKAB) for this year.

As reported by Katadata, the Director General of Minerals and Coal, Tri Winarno, responded to circulating reports that several companies had obtained RKAB approvals without any production quota cuts (0%).

In fact, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to cut coal RKAB to push prices higher this year. He said the reports circulating are incorrect information.

“The point is that until now the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has not issued approval for the 2026 RKAB,” Tri said when met in South Jakarta on Thursday (Feb. 5, 2026).

Tri said the government wants to ensure more controlled coal production. Last year, the government granted approvals for coal RKAB reaching 1.2 billion tons. However, the realization in 2025 saw total coal production at only 790 million tons.