Several countries plan to implement price cap sanctions on Russian crude oil starting December 5, 2022.
This sanction aims to reduce Russia's revenue from energy commodity exports, a major source of funding for its military aggression against Ukraine.
The price cap is planned to be implemented by developed countries in the G7 group—the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, Canada, and France—as well as several European Union countries.
According to Reuters, the G7 proposed setting a price cap on Russian crude oil in the range of US$65-US$70 per barrel. However, this proposal has not yet been agreed upon.
"There are still disagreements about the price limit. We need to discuss it bilaterally," said a European Union representative, as reported by Reuters on Wednesday, November 23, 2022.
Based on Trading Economics data, the average price of Russian Urals crude oil reached US$75.04 per barrel in October 2022. This price strengthened by approximately 7% compared to the previous month, in line with the increase in global oil prices.
Despite the price increase, Russian oil remains significantly cheaper than the average price of Brent crude oil, which reached US$93.13 per barrel, or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), priced at US$87.26 per barrel in October 2022.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the upward trend in global oil prices is partly influenced by the policy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which cut its oil production by 2 million barrels per day starting in November 2022.
"OPEC's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, stated that the oil production cut is necessary to respond to the interest rate hikes by Western central banks and the weakening global economy," Reuters reported last month (October 5, 2022).
Due to OPEC's production cuts, the EIA predicts that global oil prices could increase further until 2023, potentially leading to a rise in Russian oil prices as well.
"Potential disruptions to petroleum supplies, along with lower-than-expected crude oil production growth, could push oil prices higher," the EIA stated in its October 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook report.