Macroeconomic Assumptions in the 2020 State Budget

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), in his State Budget Address at the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI), outlined several macroeconomic assumptions that will be the government's focus next year. The government set the economic growth assumption in the 2020 State Budget Draft (RAPBN 2020) at 5.3%, the same as the 2019 State Budget (APBN 2019) target.

Several economic assumptions, such as inflation and the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, are more optimistic. The inflation assumption in the RAPBN 2020 is 3.1%, lower than the target in the APBN 2019 of 3.5%. The assumed rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is Rp 14,400, stronger than the APBN 2019 assumption of Rp 15,000 per US dollar.

The world oil price assumption in the RAPBN 2020 is set at US$65 per barrel, lower than the APBN 2019 assumption of US$70 per barrel. However, the lifting assumptions for oil and gas production are lower than in 2019. In the RAPBN 2020, the oil lifting assumption is 734,000 barrels per day, down from 775,000 barrels per day. The gas lifting assumption is down from 1.25 million barrels per day to 1.19 million barrels per day.

(Read Databoks: [Details of Macroeconomic Assumptions and Development Targets 2019](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2018/06/06/inilah-rincian-asumsi-makro-dan-target-pembangunan-2019))