AHY vs. Cak Imin Electability: Who's More Favorable?

Anies Baswedan and the General Chairperson of the National Awakening Party (PKB), Muhaimin Iskandar, also known as Cak Imin, have officially become the presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the 2024 General Election.

The declaration of this pairing was held at the Majapahit Hotel in Surabaya, East Java, on Saturday (2/9/2023).

The Anies-Cak Imin declaration surprised many, as the name of the General Chairperson of the Democratic Party, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), had previously been touted as the strongest candidate to be Anies's running mate.

According to periodic surveys by Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas), AHY's electability consistently outperformed Cak Imin's from January to August 2023.

In January 2023, AHY received 3.7% of the vote as a vice-presidential candidate in the Litbang Kompas survey. His electability then rose to 4.1% in May 2023 and increased to 5.1% in August 2023.

On the other hand, Cak Imin's electability never reached 1% in the same survey.

The Litbang Kompas survey recorded that in January 2023, Cak Imin only received 0.2% of the vote as a vice-presidential candidate. This figure slightly increased to 0.3% in May 2023 and to 0.4% in August 2023.

Considering the significant difference in electability between AHY and Cak Imin in the Litbang Kompas survey, why did Anies choose the PKB General Chairperson to run in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ari Junaedi, Director of the Nusakom Pratama Institute, suspects that the appointment of Cak Imin as Anies's running mate is due to the significant number of PKB voters.

Furthermore, PKB voters are mostly from the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) community, which is widespread in East Java, an area Anies has not yet secured.

"I believe Nasdem's move to choose Cak Imin as Anies's running mate is inseparable from the potential votes in East Java and the PKS bases wherever they are," said Ari, as reported by Kompas.com on Friday (1/9/2023).

Ari also suspects that Nasdem is taking advantage of the current political situation, where Muhaimin and the PKB feel threatened because Golkar and PAN are increasingly aligning themselves with Prabowo's coalition.

"I consider it political speculation; Nasdem is taking full advantage of the feelings of Cak Imin and the PKB, who feel abandoned after Golkar and PAN joined forces, and the strengthening of Erick Thohir's name as Prabowo's vice-presidential candidate," said Ari.

(Read also: AHY Rejected by Anies, Is He Suitable to Be Prabowo Subianto's Running Mate? Here's the Survey Result)