Poverty Rate Projected to Exceed 10 Percent

When the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the economy was the hardest-hit sector. Various scenarios emerged to predict what would happen, including scenarios for economic growth juxtaposed with national poverty rates.

The first scenario, from the Ministry of Finance, projected 1 percent growth. The second, from the World Bank, projected 0 percent growth. The third scenario, based on simulations by the Institute for Economic and Community Research, University of Indonesia (LPEM UI), incorporated fiscal stimulus. The fourth, from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), projected -0.3 percent growth.

The fifth scenario, from the Ministry of Finance, projected -0.4 percent growth. The sixth, based on LPEM UI simulations without fiscal stimulus, was also presented. The seventh and eighth scenarios, from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), projected -2.8 percent and -3.9 percent growth, respectively. The highest projected poverty rate was 11.69 percent, representing 31.57 million people living in poverty.