SMRC: PDI-P's Chances of Winning the 2024 Presidential Election are High if Ganjar Pranowo is Nominated

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) has a high chance of winning the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) if it nominates the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, as its presidential candidate.

This is based on findings from a national survey conducted by Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) titled "Trends in Support for Presidential Candidates" in August 2022.

SMRC founder Saiful Mujani stated that if the PDI Perjuangan nominates Ganjar Pranowo, the party's chances of winning the Presidential Election and having another president from their party are very high.

Based on a closed simulation with 11 names, Ganjar Pranowo's electability was the highest, garnering 27.1% of respondent support. The Governor of Central Java outperformed Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto (19%) and Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan (15.6%), who came in second and third, respectively.

Meanwhile, the electability of House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani only reached 2% of respondent support, placing her eighth. With this result, it would be difficult for Puan to compete against stronger opponents like Prabowo Subianto in second place or Anies Baswedan in third.

"The competition isn't fair because the gap is too wide. If Puan runs and the PDI Perjuangan aims to win, the challenge will be very difficult," said Saiful in his release.

In a closed simulation with three names (Puan Maharani, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan), Maharani's electability lagged far behind her opponents. In this simulation, Prabowo led with 40.2% support, Anies Baswedan with 27.5%, while Puan Maharani only received 7.8% of the vote.

In contrast, in a closed simulation with three names (Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan), Ganjar was in the lead with 32% of respondent support, followed by Prabowo with 30.8%, and Anies with 21.9%.

SMRC conducted a national survey from August 5-13, 2022, involving 1,220 respondents spread across 34 provinces. Sample collection used a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of +/- 3.1% and a 95% confidence level.

To date, the PDIP has not announced its presidential candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election, although it already has the ticket to nominate a presidential and vice-presidential candidate. The PDIP has surpassed the 20% presidential nomination threshold, having secured 22.26% of seats in the House of Representatives in the 2019 General Election.