The Trajectory of the PKB's Voice in East Java and Nationally Since the 1999 Election: Can it Boost Anies?

Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan will choose the General Chairperson of the PKB, Muhaimin Iskandar, also known as Cak Imin, as his running mate for the 2024 Presidential Election. Strong signals indicating this candidacy have been confirmed by the General Chairperson of the NasDem Party, Surya Paloh, although he claims the decision has not yet been formally established.

NasDem is part of the Coalition for Change for Unity (KPP), which also includes the Democratic Party and PKS to support Anies.

“The possibility of that happening is there, but I think it hasn't been formalized as such, so we'll wait for developments in the next day or two," said Surya Paloh at the NasDem Tower, Central Jakarta, Thursday night (31/8/2023), as quoted by *Katadata*.

This news has certainly shocked the Democratic Party, which was prepared to nominate Anies with its General Chairperson, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY). The Democratic Party's Secretary General, Teuku Riefky Harsya, revealed a unilateral agreement approved by Surya Paloh and Anies Baswedan to nominate Anies and Imin in the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election.

"Yesterday, August 30, 2023, we received information from Sudirman Said, representing Presidential Candidate Anies Baswedan, that Anies had approved the political cooperation between the NasDem Party and the PKB,” said Riefky in an official statement written by *Katadata*, Thursday (31/8/2023).

According to Riefky, the agreement between Surya Paloh and Anies was reached without involving the Democrats. Riefky stated that the Democrats had confirmed with Anies, and he said the news was true.

PKB immediately held a plenary session after the news circulated, especially since the party is still playing a role in the Great Indonesian Awakening Coalition (Koalisi Kebangkitan Indonesia Raya) with Gerindra. However, their relationship is suspected to be strained because the General Chairperson of Gerindra, Prabowo Subianto, and the presidential candidate they had previously supported, announced a name change to the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (Koalisi Indonesia Maju) without involving PKB.

Aside from this political maneuver, PKB itself has a long history in Indonesian elections. Established in 1998, PKB immediately participated as a participant in the 1999 General Election.

Citing data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), in its first election, PKB immediately garnered 13,321,837 national votes or 12.62% of valid votes. This placed the party founded by Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, in third position, after PDI-P and Golkar.

Of that number, 7,034,707 votes were contributed by East Java. This region is indeed a loyal supporter and the main stronghold of PKB, followed by Central Java, West Java, and Yogyakarta.

Meanwhile, in the 2004 election, PKB's vote share decreased to 11,989,564 votes. Most of this was contributed by East Java with 6,297,366 votes.

A massive decrease in PKB's votes occurred in the 2009 election, reaching only 5,146,302 votes. East Java contributed 11.8% of PKB's total votes, or approximately 607,263 votes.

Then in the 2014 and 2019 elections, the numbers rose again as seen in the graph.

(Also read: This is PKB's Vote Share in the 1999-2019 Elections, Which Experienced a Slump in the 2009 Election)

Boosting Anies's Votes

Through PKB, Anies Baswedan's votes could be boosted, especially in East Java. This was stated by a communication and political expert from Airlangga University (Unair), Suko Widodo.

Quoting *Republika*, Suko explained that the presence of PKB in the KPP adds considerable energy.

"Cak Imin has social capital and emotional ties with the people of East Java. And PKB's strongest support is in East Java compared to other provinces," said Suko in Surabaya, Friday (1/9/2023).

Although PKB is so strong in East Java, this choice still needs caution because, according to another Unair political observer, Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, Cak Imin has not become a major attraction for constituents, especially Nahdliyin residents in the area.

"The ability to boost is determined by internal adjustments within the pairing. Supporters must adapt when the main strength of the vice-presidential candidate's party and the political character and its supporters are not contradictory to Jokowi. That ability is what determines it," he said.

(Also read: Not Cak Imin, This is the Vice Presidential Candidate Considered Most Suitable to Accompany Anies Baswedan According to Citizens)