Reaching High-Income Country Status by 2036: Bappenas' Scenario

The National Development Planning Ministry/National Development Planning Agency (PPN/Bappenas), in the 2020-2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN), states that Indonesia's economic growth must be high during the 2020-2024 period to become a high-income country by 2036. Therefore, the government targets an average economic growth of 6% over the five years, falling under the high-growth scenario.

This scenario consecutively targets Indonesian economic growth of 5.5% in 2020; 5.7% in 2021; 5.9% in 2022; 6.2% in 2023; and 6.5% in 2024. Meanwhile, in the second (medium-growth) scenario, the government targets an average Indonesian economic growth of 5.7%. For the lowest scenario, the government only targets an average Indonesian economic growth of 5.4%.

However, Indonesia faces several challenges in achieving its economic growth targets. The World Bank, in its latest report, projects Indonesia's economy to grow at only 5.1% in 2020. The Indonesian institution, Indef, also projects Indonesia's economy to be far from the expected scenario, at 4.8%.