Based on World Bank data, the average Newcastle coal price in February 2024 was US$124.22 per ton.
This figure is down 0.5% month-on-month (mom) and down 40.1% year-on-year (yoy).
The World Bank assesses that coal prices are likely to fall until 2025, due to decreasing global consumption and increasing production.
"Coal consumption is expected to decline in the power sector due to strong growth in renewable energy and low-cost natural gas," stated the World Bank in its October 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook report.
"Coal production is expected to increase more than consumption, with strong production growth in the three largest producing countries: China, India, and Indonesia," it continued.
However, several factors could drive up coal prices, such as geopolitical conflicts and the El Niño weather phenomenon.
"An escalation of conflicts could drive up coal prices if it increases natural gas prices," said the World Bank.
"In addition, weather disruptions such as heatwaves and droughts caused by El Niño could push coal prices higher. El Niño could increase electricity demand while simultaneously reducing the supply contribution from hydropower plants," it added.