Nickel Price Projection to Fall in 2025, Rise Slightly in 2026

The World Bank estimates the average price of nickel in the global market in 2025 to reach US$15,300/metric ton, a 9% decrease compared to last year (year-on-year/yoy).

This price decline is due to an abundant nickel supply, especially from Indonesia.

"Global nickel production is expected to continue increasing throughout the projection period, with most of the growth occurring in Indonesia, which accounts for approximately 60 percent of global production," the World Bank stated in its October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook report.

For 2026, the World Bank predicts the average nickel price will increase by approximately 1% (yoy) to US$15,500/metric ton.

This prediction is based on the assumption that Indonesia will tighten its nickel production policies to raise prices.

"Indonesia's plan to revert to a one-year production quota (from the previous three years) is intended to strengthen oversight and support prices, but its impact on the still oversupplied global market is expected to be limited," the World Bank stated.

According to the World Bank, currently, about two-thirds of global nickel demand comes from the stainless steel industry.

Meanwhile, the share of nickel demand for electric vehicle batteries is smaller, also competing with the rising trend of using lithium-iron-phosphate or lithium-ferro-phosphate (LFP) based batteries.