Trump Tariffs Could Contribute Up to 0.95% to US GDP, Highest Since 1982

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Erlina Fury Santika 13/04/2025 11:00 WIB

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Statista data shows that the United States (US) frequently levies additional tariffs to increase its national revenue. Most recently, Trump's tariffs are predicted to contribute up to 0.95% to its GD

Annual Change/Increase in U.S. Government Revenue as a Percentage of GDP Based on Tariff Policy Under Each Regime (1940-2025)*

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Trump Tariffs Could Contribute Up to 0.95% to US GDP, Highest Since 1982

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Annual Change/Increase in U.S. Government Revenue as a Percentage of GDP Based on Tariff Policy Under Each Regime (1940-2025)*

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According to Statista's analysis of data from The Tax Foundation, the reciprocal tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2025, on countries worldwide, primarily trading partners, could contribute to a revenue increase of up to US$290 billion, or 0.95% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025.

Statista reports this figure as the highest since 1982. "Although the US government has claimed that tariffs are a tax on foreign entities, tariffs are paid by importers, which in the case of these new tariffs are most likely American companies," Statista wrote in an article published on Wednesday, April 9, 2025.

Historically, the U.S. saw its largest percentage contribution from tariffs in 1942, at 5.04% of GDP. However, Statista notes that from 1940 to 1968, these tariffs or regulations were war-related.

Regarding the 2025 tariff imposition, Statista presents further analysis from JPMorgan, which describes the new tariff regime as the largest tax increase since 1968, assuming overall U.S. tariffs will rise to 22% in 2025. The Tax Foundation assumes 18.8%.

"The announcement increases the risk of a global recession from 40% to 60%," Statista explains, citing JPMorgan's findings.

Many organizations, including those known for their more conservative viewpoints, criticized the tariffs. The Cato Institute, for one, also referred to the "massive tax increase" hidden within the new duties.

The latest estimates of the impact on U.S. GDP and employment suggest that the April 2 tariffs may lower GDP by 0.5% and eliminate nearly 400,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

To date, China has been the country subject to the highest tariffs. Most recently, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 145% on goods from China. China retaliated with tariffs of 125%.

Statista explains that Trump's earlier trade war with China in 2018-2019 had already reduced GDP by 0.2% and eliminated 142,000 jobs.

The following shows the average annual change or increase in U.S. government revenue as a percentage of GDP based on the policy year of the regime since 1940:

* Revenue Act of 1942: 5.04%
* Revenue Act of 1941: 2.20%
* Revenue Act of 1951: 1.52%
* Revenue Act of 1950: 1.33%
* Revenue Act of 1943: 1.16%
* Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968: 1.10%
* TEFRA 1982: 0.98%
* Excess Profits Tax of 1950: 0.97%
* Trump/Reciprocal Tariffs 2025: 0.95%
* Revenue Act of 1940: 0.91%

Editor : Erlina Fury Santika

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."