Rupiah Weakens After Trump Wins 2024 US Presidential Election

Bank Indonesia (BI), through the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR), reported that the exchange rate of the United States dollar (US$) against the Indonesian rupiah closed at Rp15,840 on Wednesday, November 6, 2024.

This represents a 0.46% weakening from the previous exchange rate of Rp15,766 on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Over the week, the rupiah has generally weakened, or conversely, the dollar has strengthened, as shown in the graph.

The rupiah did strengthen slightly on Thursday, October 31, 2024, closing at Rp15,705 compared to Rp15,732 on Wednesday, October 30, 2024.

Citing Antara, Rully Nova, an analyst at Bank Woori Saudara, stated that the rupiah's weakening is a consequence of the results of the 2024 US Presidential Election, which was won by Donald Trump. Rully predicted this before Trump was declared the winner with over 270 electoral college votes.

"The projected victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential Election will likely negatively impact emerging markets, including Indonesia, as the US dollar will strengthen due to Trump's protectionist policies," said Rully when contacted by Antara in Jakarta on Wednesday, November 6, 2024.

Rully added that if Kamala Harris had won the US Presidential Election, there would have been risks, including the US government continuing to absorb US dollars through the issuance of government bonds due to increased social spending.

Echoing Rully's sentiment, Reny Eka Putri, a senior economist at Bank Mandiri, said that the US dollar is currently strengthening because the market is responding to the initial results of the US election. In addition, risk appetite remains low, influenced by the prospect of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Donald Trump Wins 2024 US Presidential Election

Donald J. Trump of the Republican Party won the 2024 United States Presidential Election.

Based on data from Associated Press (AP) News and Google's index, Trump secured 295 electoral college votes by Wednesday local time (November 5, 2024), or Thursday at 7:30 AM WIB (November 7, 2024). Trump surpassed the presidential election threshold by obtaining more than 270 out of 538 electoral college votes.

Trump garnered over 72.3 million votes, or 50.9% of the total popular vote across all US states.

His strongest opponent, Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party, lagged significantly with 226 electoral college votes and 67.57 million votes (47.6%).

Other candidates received 0 electoral college votes with very few votes overall. These included Gill Stein from the Green Party (634,600 votes, 0.4%); Robbert Kennedy, independent (608,120 votes, 0.4%); Chase Oliver from the Libertarian Party (571,312,600 votes, 0.4%); and other candidates with a combined 322,290 votes (0.2%).

The Republican Party also dominated other elections. Specifically, they won 52 Senate seats compared to 44 for the Democrats; 205 House seats compared to 190 for the Democrats; and 27 Governor seats compared to 23 for the Democrats.

The US electoral system uses the electoral college. According to CNBC Indonesia, voters in each state choose representatives, or electors, based on the election results in that state. This differs from the Indonesian election system, which counts each vote cast for a presidential candidate. In the US, the votes counted are still through the electoral college.

Following yesterday's election day, the official electoral college vote count will take place in December 2024, bringing together electors in their respective states. The vote count will then occur in January 2025; barring any issues, the result will be identical to the quick count from yesterday.