LPEM UI Estimates Millions of Workers Affected by Disasters in Indonesia in 2025

The report by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI) maps the number and distribution of workers affected by disasters in Indonesia.

The researchers examined the direct impact of the latest floods in various provinces and time periods, including Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra (November-December 2025), South Kalimantan (December 2025), and Bali (September 2025).

Then, the researchers calculated estimates of the number of affected workers using an upper bound and lower bound approach. These bounds aim to capture the potential range of labor market disruptions caused by floods.

The upper bound estimate reflects the scale of exposure, assuming that economic activities are widely disrupted across all affected districts.

Conversely, the lower bound estimate focuses on the direct impact on people, using data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) on the number of displaced residents, supplemented by data on fatalities, missing persons, and injured individuals.

From this mapping, the total estimate of affected workers ranges between 11.20 million and 11.22 million. Breaking it down by employment status, there are 6.02 million formal workers and 5.19 million informal workers affected.

North Sumatra is the province with the highest total estimate of affected workers on this list, while Bali has the lowest figure.

The following is the distribution of affected workers in five Indonesian provinces:

North Sumatra

• Formal (upper): 2.52 million people
• Formal (lower): 510,14 thousand people
• Informal (upper): 1.88 million people
• Informal (lower): 451,85 thousand people
• Total (upper): 4.41 million people
• Total (lower): 961,99 thousand people
• Estimated grand total: 5.37 million people

Aceh

• Formal (upper): 816,36 thousand people
• Formal (lower): 324,42 thousand people
• Informal (upper): 871,28 thousand people
• Informal (lower): 365,38 thousand people
• Total (upper): 1.68 million people
• Total (lower): 689,81 thousand people
• Estimated grand total: 2.38 million people

West Sumatra

• Formal (upper): 844,17 thousand people
• Formal (lower): 67,87 thousand people
• Informal (upper): 835,71 thousand people
• Informal (lower): 70,65 thousand people
• Total (upper): 1.67 million people
• Total (lower): 138,52 thousand people
• Estimated grand total: 1.82 million people

South Kalimantan

• Formal (upper): 368,87 thousand people
• Formal (lower): 43,84 thousand people
• Informal (upper): 390,44 thousand people
• Informal (lower): 44,22 thousand people
• Total (upper): 759,31 thousand people
• Total (lower): 88,06 thousand people
• Estimated grand total: 847,4 thousand people

Bali

• Formal (upper): 514,53 thousand people
• Formal (lower): 10,45 thousand people
• Informal (upper): 273,93 thousand people
• Informal (lower): 6,37 thousand people
• Total (upper): 788,46 thousand people
• Total (lower): 16,82 thousand people
• Estimated grand total: 805,3 thousand people

As a note, the estimated grand total in this article is a rounded figure calculated by Databoks.