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Denny JA's LSI: Ganjar-Mahfud's Electability Decreases, Opponents Strengthen

Nabilah Muhamad 21/11/2023 16:04 WIB

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Based on a survey by LSI Denny JA, the electability of the Ganjar-Mahfud presidential candidate pair continued to decline during the September-November 2023 period. Meanwhile, their opponents, Prabowo

Electability of 3 Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate Pairs according to LSI Denny JA (September-November 2023)

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Denny JA's LSI: Ganjar-Mahfud's Electability Decreases, Opponents Strengthen

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Electability of 3 Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate Pairs according to LSI Denny JA (September-November 2023)

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According to the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA, the electability of the Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD presidential-vice presidential pair continued to decline during September-November 2023.

This is in contrast to their two competitors, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, whose electability strengthened.

In a simulated three-candidate election survey, the electability of Ganjar-Mahfud reached 36.9% in September 2023 but dropped to 28.6% in November 2023.

According to LSI Denny JA researcher Adjie Al Faraby, the decline in support for the pair was influenced by actions from Ganjar's camp that frequently attacked President Jokowi.

"Because (Ganjar's camp) increasingly attacked Jokowi, their support from voters satisfied with Jokowi actually decreased," said Adjie in his presentation on the LSI Denny JA YouTube channel, Monday (20/11/2023).

In October 2023, Ganjar-Mahfud's voter base from the group of respondents satisfied with Jokowi's performance reached 39.4%. However, this figure dropped to 31.9% in November 2023.

Adjie assessed that the weakening of Ganjar-Mahfud's support was also influenced by Ganjar's 10-year leadership track record in Central Java, which still leaves behind poverty.

On the other hand, Prabowo-Gibran's electability strengthened despite a temporary decline. In September 2023, this pair achieved 39.3% electability, then dropped to 36.8% in October 2023, and rebounded higher to 40.3% in November 2023.

"This pair experienced an increase because criticisms based on dynasty, corruption, collusion, and nepotism (KKN), and those attacking Gibran personally as incompetent, etc., turned out to have no electoral effect," said Adjie.

Adjie assessed that positive sentiment towards Prabowo-Gibran was stronger than negative sentiment.

Similarly, the Anies-Muhaimin pair saw their electability consistently rise, from 15% in September 2023 to 20.3% in November 2023.

"From the data we found, voters who left Ganjar are now largely going to Anies," said Adjie.

The number of undecided respondents or swing voters also increased, from 8.8% in September 2023 to 10.8% in November 2023.

This LSI Denny JA survey involved 1,200 respondents from various regions of Indonesia. The sample was selected using a multistage random sampling method.

Data collection was conducted from November 6-13, 2023, using face-to-face interviews with questionnaires. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.9% and a 95% confidence level.

(Read also: Said to be Affected by the "Jokowi Effect", Prabowo-Gibran Leads in East Java in ARCI Survey)

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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Denny JA's LSI: Ganjar-Mahfud's Electability Decreases, Opponents Strengthen

Denny JA's LSI: Ganjar-Mahfud's Electability Decreases, Opponents Strengthen

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Denny JA's LSI: Ganjar-Mahfud's Electability Decreases, Opponents Strengthen

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