The World Bank projected the economic growth of several ASEAN countries in June 2024. Vietnam and Cambodia showed the most impressive growth from 2024 to 2026.
Vietnam is projected to achieve economic growth of 5.5% this year. This growth could increase to 6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.
Cambodia's economic growth is predicted to reach 5.8% in 2024. The World Bank projects the Angkor Wat nation's economy to reach 6.1% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026.
The Philippines also ranks among the top three most impressive, with a projected growth of 5.8% in 2024. Its growth is expected to increase slightly to 5.9% in 2025 and 2026.
Indonesia is projected to achieve economic growth of 5% in 2024. Similar to the Philippines, the World Bank predicts a slight increase in economic growth to 5.1% in 2025 and 2026.
The lowest projection is for Myanmar, with only 1% growth in 2024. The World Bank has not yet projected growth for this country for 2025 and 2026 due to "high uncertainty."
Thailand follows with the next lowest projection, at 2.4% growth in 2024, 2.8% in 2025, and 2.9% in 2026.
The World Bank stated that GDP growth in most East Asia and Pacific countries—excluding China—including Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines—will be supported by solid private consumption growth, driven by low inflation, lower borrowing costs, and strong labor market conditions. However, private and public investment is projected to remain sluggish.
Increased uncertainty related to recent political transitions and conflicts, including global trade policies, is expected to weaken private investment.
Simultaneously, rising public debt exceeding pre-pandemic levels in most countries in the region and delayed budget approvals are anticipated to hinder public investment growth in several countries.
"Against this backdrop, nearly half of developing economies will experience a widening per capita income gap relative to advanced economies during the first half of the 2020s, the highest share since the 1990s," wrote the World Bank in a report published on June 4, 2024.
Per capita income growth in developing countries is expected to reach only an average of 3% until 2026. According to the World Bank, this figure is significantly below the 3.8% average in the decade before Covid-19.
"Many developing economies are not expected to catch up relatively with advanced economies in the near term. Of course, there are some bright spots that stand out in the global economy," said the World Bank.
Overall, global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024. The World Bank stated that this figure is holding steady for the first time in three years, despite rising geopolitical tensions and high interest rates.
"This growth is then expected to increase to 2.7% in 2025-2026 amid moderate growth in trade and investment," said the World Bank.