Retail Sales Prediction for September 2021 Contracts by 1.1%

Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that retail sales in September 2021 contracted again after improving in August 2021. This is reflected in the Real Retail Sales Index (IPR), which is estimated at 190.3 points. This figure shows a contraction of 1.1% compared to the previous month, which was 192.5 points (month-to-month/mom).

Retail sales performance declined despite the easing of the Community Activity Restriction Policy (PPKM) and increasing public mobility. Several IPR groups in September 2021 are estimated to have contracted, particularly the spare parts and accessories group, which contracted by 7.3% (month-to-month/mom). Sales of food, beverages, and tobacco are also projected to contract by 2.1% (mom).

On the other hand, sales of other household goods grew by 2.2% (mom), sales of motor vehicle fuel grew by 13.9% (mom), and sales of information and communication equipment grew by 2.7% (mom).

Furthermore, sales in the culture and recreation goods group are also expected to improve, growing by 0.8% (mom). Sales in the clothing sub-group will grow by 6.3%, and sales in the other goods group will also grow by 3.6% (mom).

Meanwhile, the year-on-year (yoy) performance of retail sales is predicted to improve. The contraction in the IPR value in September 2021 was 1.8%, smaller than the 2.1% contraction in August 2021.