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Economic Growth Projections for Southeast Asian Countries in 2026, ADB Version

Akbar Ridwan 16/04/2026 16:08 WIB

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According to ADB's projections, if the US-Iran conflict does not drag on, Indonesia's economic growth could potentially reach 5.2% by 2026, which is relatively high in Southeast Asia.

Economic Growth Projections for 2026 in Southeast Asian Countries, Asian Development Bank Version (April 2026)*

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Economic Growth Projections for 2026 in Southeast Asian Countries, Asian Development Bank Version (April 2026)*

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According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the US-Israeli war against Iran that broke out since the end of February 2026 has the potential to weigh on economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region.

In a scenario of early stabilization—if the conflict lasts for about 1 month and the disruption gradually subsides afterward—the ADB projects that the Asia-Pacific region's economy could grow by 5.1% in 2026.

However, if the Middle East conflict continues until the third quarter, Asia-Pacific's economic growth in 2026 is projected to slow to 4.7%.

"This projection is still very vulnerable to uncertainties," said the ADB in its April 2026 edition of the Asian Development Outlook report.

"The conflict will weigh on growth through high production costs and consumer prices, as well as weakening external demand in the trade and tourism sectors," it continued.

The same generally applies to the Southeast Asian region, including Indonesia.

In a scenario of early stabilization, the ADB projects that Indonesia's economy could grow by 5.2% in 2026, but it could be lower if the conflict does not subside.

"In Indonesia, growth is expected to strengthen, supported by strong domestic demand, but a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could weigh on that prospect," said the ADB.

However, in a scenario of early stabilization, Indonesia's economic growth projection is relatively strong in Southeast Asia, second only to Vietnam.

Here are the 2026 economic growth projections for Southeast Asian countries, according to the ADB's April 2026 report:

Vietnam: 7.2%
Indonesia: 5.2%
Malaysia: 4.6%
Cambodia: 4.5%
Philippines: 4.4%
Laos: 4%
Timor Leste: 3.8%
Singapore: 3%
Myanmar: 2.4%
Thailand: 1.8%
Brunei Darussalam: 1.6%

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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Economic Growth Projections for Southeast Asian Countries in 2026, ADB Version

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