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If Oil Prices Rise, Indonesia's State Budget Deficit Will Increase

Adi Ahdiat 09/03/2026 11:53 WIB

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Based on the Indonesia's 2026 State Budget, every increase in oil prices by US$1/barrel could have an impact on the country's budget deficit of Rp6.8 trillion.

Assumption of Increased Revenue, Spending, and State Budget Deficit Due to a $1/Barrel Increase in Crude Oil Prices (2026)

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Assumption of Increased Revenue, Spending, and State Budget Deficit Due to a $1/Barrel Increase in Crude Oil Prices (2026)

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The global oil price has surged since the outbreak of the war between the United States (US)-Israel against Iran.

According to Investing.com data, in the nine-day war period from February 28 to March 8, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by 49% to US$108.23 per barrel.

This rise in oil prices could have an impact on Indonesia's State Budget (APBN).

In the 2026 APBN, the government assumed that the price of crude oil this year would be at US$70 per barrel.

According to the APBN, if the oil price rises by US$1 per barrel above the assumption, then the state's revenue could increase by Rp3.5 trillion.

However, a rise in oil prices by US$1 per barrel could also lead to an increase in state spending of Rp10.3 trillion.

Thus, every increase in oil prices by US$1 per barrel could potentially add Rp6.8 trillion to the state's budget deficit.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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If Oil Prices Rise, Indonesia's State Budget Deficit Will Increase

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If Oil Prices Rise, Indonesia's State Budget Deficit Will Increase

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