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Crude Oil Prices Rise, Far Above Indonesia's 2026 State Budget Assumptions

Adi Ahdiat 09/03/2026 11:27 WIB

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After the outbreak of the war between the US and Israel against Iran, the price of crude oil rose far above the assumptions of the Indonesian government in the 2026 State Budget.

Assumptions and Realizations of Crude Oil Prices (March 8, 2026)

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Assumptions and Realizations of Crude Oil Prices (March 8, 2026)

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The global oil price has surged since the outbreak of the war between the United States (US) and Israel against Iran.

According to Investing.com data, in the nine days of the war from February 28 to March 8, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by 49% to US$108.23 per barrel.

This price is far above the Indonesian government's forecast contained in the 2026 State Budget (APBN).

In the APBN, the government assumed that the crude oil price this year would be at US$70 per barrel.

According to the APBN, if the oil price rises by US$1 per barrel above the assumption, the state revenue could increase by Rp3.5 trillion.

However, a rise in oil prices by US$1 per barrel could also lead to an increase in state spending of Rp10.3 trillion.

Thus, every increase in oil prices by US$1 per barrel could potentially result in a state budget deficit of Rp6.8 trillion.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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Crude Oil Prices Rise, Far Above Indonesia's 2026 State Budget Assumptions

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Crude Oil Prices Rise, Far Above Indonesia's 2026 State Budget Assumptions

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