Geoeconomic Confrontation, The Biggest Risk of 2026 According to Experts

The World Economic Forum (WEF) surveyed experts' views on what could potentially trigger a global-scale crisis by 2026.

The results showed that the majority, or 18% of respondents, stated that the biggest risk factor is "geoeconomic confrontation."

The WEF defines "geoeconomic confrontation" as the deployment of economic levers by global or regional powers to reshape economic interactions between nations, restricting goods, knowledge, services or technology with the intent of building self-sufficiency, constraining geopolitical rivals and/or consolidating spheres of influence.

Includes, but is not limited to: currency measures; investment controls; sanctions; state aid and subsidies; and trade controls.

"Geoeconomic confrontation threatens the core of the interconnected global economy," the WEF stated in its Global Risks Report 2026.

"In a world already weakened by rising rivalries, unstable supply chains and prolonged conflicts at risk of regional spillover, such confrontation carries systemic, deliberate and far-reaching global consequences, increasing state fragility," they said.

Experts involved in the survey also identified various other risks, such as armed conflicts between states, extreme weather, and economic inequality.

Below is a list of the 10 risk factors most likely to trigger a global crisis by 2026, according to the WEF survey:

1. Geoeconomic confrontation: 18%
2. Armed conflicts between states: 14%
3. Extreme weather: 8%
4. Social polarization: 7%
5. Misinformation and disinformation: 7%
6. Economic slowdown: 5%
7. Human rights violations: 4%
8. Negative impacts of artificial intelligence (AI): 4%
9. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities: 3%
10. Economic inequality: 3%

The WEF conducted this survey in August-September 2025, involving approximately 1,300 expert respondents from academia, business, government, international organizations, and civil society.