IMF Projection: Indonesia's Economic Growth Stable in 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Indonesia's economic growth this year to be stable, neither increasing nor decreasing compared to last year.

In its January 2024 edition of the *World Economic Outlook* (WEO), the IMF estimates Indonesia's economy to grow at 5.0% in both 2023 and 2024.

The stable projection of Indonesia's economic growth is in line with global conditions.

The IMF also forecasts stable global economic growth at 3.1% in 2023 and 2024.

According to the IMF, global economic growth this year is supported by improvements in China, the United States, and developing countries.

The IMF also describes the 2024 global economic projection as "resilient but slow".

"This projection is based on the assumption that prices of fuel and non-fuel commodities will fall in 2024-2025, and that interest rates in advanced economies will decline," the IMF wrote in its report.

The IMF estimates that the average price of crude oil will fall by 2.3% in 2024, and the price of non-fuel commodities will fall by 0.9%.

Central bank interest rates in the US, Europe, and the UK are predicted to fall starting in the second half of 2024, as inflation in those countries subsides.

Cumulatively, the IMF projects global inflation to fall from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024.

However, the IMF notes that several risks could disrupt the optimism surrounding this year's economic growth.

These risks include the escalation of the conflict in the Gaza Strip and the Red Sea, extreme weather that could disrupt food security, and a worsening situation in the property sector in China and elsewhere.