Central ASN Relocation to IKN to be Phased, What is the Population Projection for East Kalimantan?

The Indonesian government has designated Sepaku, North Penajam Paser Regency, East Kalimantan, as the location for the new Nusantara Capital City (IKN). IKN will replace Jakarta, which has served as the capital since 1945.

The relocation process to IKN will begin in 2024. The government has prepared a scheme for the relocation of civil servants (ASN).

According to the Ministry of Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform (Kemenpan RB), 16,990 civil servants, military personnel (TNI), and police officers (Polri) will be relocated in the first phase in 2024. Eventually, a total of 970,000 central government civil servants will be moved.

The IKN National Strategic Area (KSN) covers 256,142 hectares, including 199,962 hectares for IKN development and 56,180 hectares for the IKN area itself. The core central government area covers 6,596 hectares.

This area is predicted to experience a significant influx of new residents. So, what is the overall population projection for East Kalimantan?

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) collected population data for East Kalimantan through the 2020 Population Census (SP). Based on this data, BPS developed projections up to 2050.

In 2020, the population of East Kalimantan was recorded at 3.75 million. A year later, the population reached 3.8 million.

BPS predicts an increase of 50,000 residents in 2022, bringing the total to 3.85 million.

In 2024, the first phase of relocation of civil servants and other personnel to IKN is projected to result in a population of 4.04 million. Based on the projection pattern, BPS predicts an increase of approximately 200,000 residents per year at the beginning of the IKN relocation.

However, population growth from 2031 onwards is projected to increase by 50,000-100,000 residents per year. By 2050, the population is projected to reach 6.7 million, as shown in the graph above.

(See also: 10 Largest IKN Subprojects, from Infrastructure to Forest Rehabilitation)