List of Countries Predicted to Possess Nuclear Weapons in 10 Years

The Atlantic Council surveyed experts on which countries are likely to possess nuclear weapons within the next 10 years.

The results show that the majority of experts predict Iran will possess such weapons. Other countries were deemed to have a lower probability.

The following list shows the countries predicted to possess nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, according to the experts surveyed by the Atlantic Council:

• Iran: 72.8%
• Saudi Arabia: 41.6%
• South Korea: 40.2%
• Japan: 28.6%
• Ukraine: 14.9%
• Taiwan: 7.9%
• Other countries: 6.2%
• No additional countries possessing nuclear weapons: 12.1%

The Atlantic Council conducted this survey in November-December 2024, involving 356 experts from approximately 50 countries.

These respondents work in private companies, non-profit organizations, academia, independent consulting, government, and multilateral institutions.

The strong prediction that Iran will possess nuclear weapons aligns with reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which states that Iran is increasing its uranium reserves.

"They [Iran] have a nuclear programme that has grown, has spawned in every possible direction," said IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, as reported by the BBC (December 7, 2024).