Worst-Case Scenario Prediction of COVID-19 Death Toll

Many parties criticize the Indonesian government for its delayed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a surge in cases. According to the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) in London, at the beginning of this week, at least 70,700 people were infected, as only 2% of COVID-19 cases are reported.

A team of epidemiologists from the Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia, in their *Covid-19 Modelling Scenarios Indonesia*, predicts that the death toll in Indonesia will continue to rise. The number depends on the government's response, ranging from no intervention to high intervention. These predictions are based on an assumed timeframe of 70 days (mid-May 2020).

Without government intervention, the impact of the coronavirus could result in 240,244 deaths. Low and medium interventions, respectively, would result in 144,266 and 47,984 deaths. According to the team of epidemiologists, the government is currently implementing low intervention in the form of social restrictions with limited scope. If the government successfully implements high intervention, the number of deaths could be reduced to 11,898. These figures do not account for medical interventions and medication, as reported by Harian Kompas.