Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA released its latest survey report on political party electability towards the end of 2023.
The results show Gerindra taking the lead. The party led by presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto surpassed the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), which has been the winning party in the general elections for two consecutive periods.
Currently, Gerindra's electability stands at 19.5%, slightly ahead of PDIP's 19.3%.
"For the first time since 2014, Gerindra has overtaken PDIP. This is a fascinating finding from late November to early December," said Hanggoro, a researcher at LSI Denny JA, in an online press conference on his official YouTube account, Tuesday (12/19/2023).
According to Hanggoro, the decline in PDIP's electability in this survey is due to three factors: PDIP's blunder in attacking President Jokowi, the controversy surrounding the rejection of the U-20 World Cup, and the issue of the president as a party official.
"If this trend continues, PDIP's support could revert to the era before Jokowi became president," he said.
PDIP's vote share since Jokowi became president has indeed always been dominant. In the 2014 general election, they garnered 18.95% of the vote, rising to 19.33% in the 2019 general election.
This contrasts with the period before Jokowi's presidency. In the 2009 general election, PDIP only received 14.03% of the vote, placing below the Democratic Party.
According to Hanggoro, if PDIP fails to regain its top position, the party's era of dominance will end.
"Will PDIP's 10-year dominance result in a failure to achieve a hat-trick – winning three consecutive legislative elections next year – or will it be the opposite? We will see next February," he said.
This LSI Denny JA survey involved 1,200 respondents from various regions of Indonesia. The sample was selected using multistage random sampling.
Data collection was conducted from November 20 to December 3, 2023, using face-to-face interviews with questionnaires.
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.