Despite Low-Carbon Scenarios, Indonesia's CO2 Emissions Continue to Rise

State Electricity Company (PLN) has developed a low-carbon energy mix scenario for the 2021-2030 period.

PLN's low-carbon scenario includes a plan to increase the mix of new and renewable energy (NRE) by 23% starting in 2025, and to reduce the proportion of coal from 66.98% to 59.4% in 2030.

However, under this low-carbon scenario, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to still increase from 259.1 million tons of CO2 in 2021 to 334.6 million tons of CO2 in 2030.

Coal as the Largest Source of CO2 Emissions

Based on fuel type, the largest amount of GHG emissions in PLN's low-carbon scenario comes from coal combustion.

GHG emissions from coal are projected to increase by 34.5%, from 222.2 million tons of CO2 in 2021 to 298.9 million tons of CO2 in 2030.

This indicates that coal will remain Indonesia's primary energy source in 2030, although its percentage will decrease compared to 2021.

Furthermore, under PLN's low-carbon scenario, gas emissions are projected to increase by 21.8%, from 27.9 million tons of CO2 in 2021 to 34 million tons of CO2 in 2030.

Only emissions from fossil fuels (BBM) are projected to decrease. BBM emissions are planned to be reduced by 81%, from 9 million tons of CO2 in 2021 to 1.7 million tons of CO2 in 2030.

Low-Carbon Scenario Better Than Other Scenarios

Although emissions are still projected to increase, the low-carbon scenario has lower emissions compared to the "optimal scenario" and the "business as usual" (BAU) scenario developed by PLN.

In PLN's optimal scenario, the mix of new and renewable energy (NRE) is increased to 23% starting in 2025, but coal use remains high at around 64%. This scenario is projected to result in GHG emissions of 363 million tons of CO2 in 2030.

In PLN's business as usual (BAU) scenario, there is no increase in NRE or low-carbon technologies in the national energy mix. This scenario is projected to result in GHG emissions of 433 million tons of CO2 in 2030.