Impact of the Sumatra Disaster, Indonesia's GDP Could Decrease by IDR 68 Trillion

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Nabilah Muhamad 04/12/2025 16:35 WIB

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According to Celios' calculations, the Sumatra floods and landslides disaster has the potential to reduce Indonesia's GDP by Rp68.67 trillion or 0.29%.

Projected Decline in Provincial GDP due to Sumatra Disaster (November 2025)

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Impact of the Sumatra Disaster, Indonesia's GDP Could Decrease by IDR 68 Trillion

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Projected Decline in Provincial GDP due to Sumatra Disaster (November 2025)

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Floods and landslides hit three provinces on Sumatra Island, namely Aceh, West Sumatra, and North Sumatra, at the end of November 2025.

According to the Center of Economics and Law Studies (Celios), this disaster could lead to a decrease in Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP).

"When a disaster occurs in one region, disrupting transportation, the impact is not only felt in that province but also negatively affects the nation as a whole," Celios stated in its report, The Economic Loss Impact of Sumatra Flood Disasters.

"Nationally, there is an estimated decrease in gross domestic product of Rp68.67 trillion, or equivalent to 0.29 percent," Celios added.

"The impact on other provinces includes a weakening flow of consumer goods and industrial necessities, especially since North Sumatra is one of the national industrial hubs on Sumatra," it continued.

When viewed per province, Celios estimates that this disaster could cause Aceh's GDP to shrink by Rp2.04 trillion, North Sumatra's by Rp2.07 trillion, and West Sumatra's by Rp2.01 trillion.

Below are the details of the estimated GDP decrease per province due to the Sumatra disaster, according to Celios' calculations, ordered from largest to smallest:

Jambi: Rp2.08 trillion
Bengkulu: Rp2.08 trillion
Banten: Rp2.08 trillion
North Maluku: Rp2.08 trillion
North Sumatra: Rp2.07 trillion
Lampung: Rp2.07 trillion
Riau Islands: Rp2.07 trillion
West Java: Rp2.07 trillion
East Java: Rp2.07 trillion
Riau: Rp2.06 trillion
Central Java: Rp2.06 trillion
North Sulawesi: Rp2.06 trillion
East Kalimantan: Rp2.05 trillion
Aceh: Rp2.04 trillion
Central Kalimantan: Rp2.04 trillion
South Sulawesi: Rp2.04 trillion
West Papua: Rp2.03 trillion
Maluku: Rp2.02 trillion
West Sumatra: Rp2.01 trillion
Bangka Belitung Islands: Rp2.01 trillion
South Kalimantan: Rp2.01 trillion
North Kalimantan: Rp2.01 trillion
Central Sulawesi: Rp2.01 trillion
Yogyakarta: Rp2 trillion
West Kalimantan: Rp2 trillion
South Sumatra: Rp1.99 trillion
East Nusa Tenggara: Rp1.99 trillion
West Nusa Tenggara: Rp1.98 trillion
Southeast Sulawesi: Rp1.98 trillion
Gorontalo: Rp1.98 trillion
Bali: Rp1.95 trillion
Papua: Rp1.95 trillion
West Sulawesi: Rp1.94 trillion
DKI Jakarta: Rp1.88 trillion

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."