International financial institutions predict a global recession risk in the near future.
The World Bank, for instance, stated in its October 2022 edition of the *East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update* report that the global economy is already showing a slowdown, potentially reducing export demand from the East Asia and Pacific region.
Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in its October 2022 *World Economic Outlook* that the economic growth of advanced economies is projected to slow down until next year, particularly in the United States and European countries.
Amidst these gloomy predictions, Indonesia's export value has also decreased.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) report, in September 2022, the national export value shrank by 10.99% compared to the previous month (month-on-month/mom).
"The decrease in exports in September 2022 compared to August 2022 was caused by a decrease in non-oil and gas exports by 10.31% (mom), and oil and gas exports decreased by 21.41% (mom)," reported BPS.
Based on the regional destination, the decline in Indonesian non-oil and gas export demand was most significant in the European Union, a region currently experiencing the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict.
BPS noted that cumulatively, Indonesian non-oil and gas exports to the entire European Union fell by 21.47% (mom) in September 2022. However, there was also a slight increase in non-oil and gas exports to several countries.
Here's a breakdown of the percentage increase/decrease in Indonesian non-oil and gas exports to several main destination countries/regions in September 2022:
* Germany: up 15.86% (mom)
* Other ASEAN countries: up 3.78% (mom)
* China: down 0.09% (mom)
* Japan: down 2.53% (mom)
* Australia: down 3.03% (mom)
* Singapore: down 7.17% (mom)
* Taiwan: down 7.97% (mom)
* South Korea: down 11.91% (mom)
* Italy: down 14.97% (mom)
* Malaysia: down 16.25% (mom)
* Thailand: down 18.04% (mom)
* United States: down 18.26% (mom)
* Other European Union countries: down 27.34% (mom)
* India: down 29.23% (mom)
* Netherlands: down 29.63% (mom)
"Total non-oil and gas export value in September 2022 to the 13 destination countries reached US$17.13 billion, or down US$1.98 billion (10.38%) compared to August 2022," reported BPS.
"The decrease was caused by a decline in export value to almost all major destination countries such as India, the United States, Malaysia, the Netherlands, and Thailand," BPS continued.
BPS also reported that despite the decline, during the January-September 2022 period, China remained Indonesia's largest export destination, followed by the United States and India.