Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) projects robust retail sales growth of 5.4 percent in August.

Bank Indonesia forecasts that retail sales performance will remain strong in August 2022. Based on BI's survey, the August 2022 Real Retail Sales Index (IPR) is projected at 202.8, or a 5.4% year-on-year (yoy) growth.

This positive performance in retail sales is mainly supported by increased sales of food, beverages, and tobacco. Month-on-month (mtm), retail sales are projected to grow by 1.3% after experiencing a contraction for three consecutive months. This is primarily driven by increased sales of food, beverages, and tobacco, as well as improvement in the spare parts and accessories group.

In July 2022, the Retail Sales Survey (SPE) indicated that retail sales performance grew higher, reflected in the July 2022 Real Retail Sales Index (IPR) recorded at 200.2, or a 6.2% yoy growth, increasing from the previous month's growth of 4.1% yoy. This increase was driven by higher sales in almost all commodity groups, including the clothing subgroup (59.4%, yoy) and the motor vehicle fuel group (67.2%, yoy).

Month-on-month, retail sales growth in July 2022 was recorded at -3.1% (mtm), improving from -11.8% (mtm) in the previous month, particularly in the motor vehicle fuel group, the clothing subgroup, and the culture and recreation goods group.

From a price perspective, respondents forecast that inflationary pressure will decrease in October 2022 and increase in January 2023. The October 2022 General Price Expectation (IEH) was recorded at 135.3, lower than 137.5 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the January 2023 IEH was recorded at 144.7, higher than 138.5 in the previous month.

(read: Retail Sales Performance Generally Improves, Except in Semarang)