BRICS Economic Growth Forecast 2023-2024: Who's the Biggest?

Several developing countries have formed a new power bloc known as BRICS. This group comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

According to *Katadata*, this group, initiated by Russia in 2006, has several major goals to counter the hegemony of the United States. Even South Africa's Ambassador to Asia, Anil Sooklal, and his officials hope that BRICS can become a leader for developing countries.

One of the major issues raised by BRICS is the discussion of a new payment instrument, one of several ways to counter US dollar dominance, also known as de-dollarization.

Beyond this issue, what is the projected economic growth of the BRICS countries?

Based on projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India has the highest projected economic growth against its GDP within BRICS.

In 2023, India's economy is projected to grow by 6.1% year-on-year (yoy). Its economy is predicted to strengthen further to 6.3% (yoy) in 2024.

The IMF states that the economic projection for India reflects stronger-than-expected growth momentum in Q4 2022, primarily driven by increased domestic investment.

Next is China, projected to reach 5.2% (yoy) in 2023. However, the IMF projects a decline in China's economic growth in 2024, to 4.5% (yoy).

Despite the decline, the IMF notes a change in the composition of China's macroeconomic indicators, namely the growth of consumption in line with the April 2023 WEO projection.

"But investment underperformed due to the ongoing real estate downturn in the country. Stronger-than-expected exports have offset some of the investment weakness, although their contribution is declining as the global economy slows," wrote the IMF in its *World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update*, July 2023.

Next, Brazil's economy is projected to grow by 2.1% (yoy) in 2023. The projection for 2024 weakens to 1.2% (yoy).

Russia, the driving force behind the group, is predicted to grow by only 1.5% (yoy) in 2023. The IMF also anticipates a weakening of Russia's economic growth in 2024, to 1.3% (yoy).

The region with the lowest projected growth is South Africa, at 0.3% (yoy) in 2023. However, the IMF sees resilience in the region's service sector activity, leading to a projected increase in economic growth to 1.7% (yoy) in 2024.

Welcoming New Members

*Katadata* reports that BRICS has agreed to accept six new members. The six countries joining are Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.

This agreement was decided at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Thursday, August 24, 2023. The group's leaders opened membership expansion to accelerate efforts to overhaul the world order, which they consider outdated.

“This expansion of membership is historic,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping, as quoted by Reuters on Friday, August 25, 2023.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the six new candidates will officially become members on January 1, 2024.