Indonesia's Economic Growth Projection 2020

The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, in its *Economic Outlook: Indonesia in 2020*, projects Indonesia's economic growth in 2020 to be only in the range of 4.9-5.1%. This figure is lower than the government's target in the 2020 State Budget (APBN) of 5.3%.

The low projection of domestic economic growth is influenced by the still-depressed global conditions. In this regard, CORE presents two scenarios, each with three factors stemming from global economic growth, the United States (US) presidential election, and global oil prices.

In the *first* scenario, global economic growth increases but is hampered by the slowdown in US and Chinese economic growth. CORE projects that global conditions will improve if Donald Trump is not re-elected in the US election. The trade war will cease, and oil prices will weaken due to increased global supply.

In the *second* scenario, an escalation of the trade war causes the global economy to weaken. If Trump is re-elected, the trade war could continue, impacting economic slowdown. Furthermore, global oil prices will rise, triggered by geopolitical factors in the Middle East. Besides CORE Indonesia, four other institutions also project Indonesia's economy to grow no more than 5.2%.