Research: Acute Malnutrition in Gaza Could Spread Without a Ceasefire

The Israeli military's attacks on the Gaza Strip, Palestine, have caused local residents to suffer from food shortages and an increasing risk of acute malnutrition.

According to the research report *Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-based Health Impact Projections*, before the war, the rate of acute malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months in the Gaza Strip was 3.2%. However, by February 2024, this figure is estimated to have risen to 14.1%.

The research also predicts the rate of acute malnutrition among Gaza children under three scenarios:

* A scenario of a ceasefire/permanent cessation of military activity in the near future;
* A *status quo* scenario, or the continuation of the current war;
* A scenario of escalation or increased military operations.

In the ceasefire scenario, the percentage of children aged 6-59 months in the Gaza Strip experiencing acute malnutrition is predicted to decrease to 13.4% in May 2024, and further to 12.4% in August 2024.

However, if the war continues as it is and the situation does not change, the prevalence is predicted to rise to 16.6% in May 2024, and increase to 21.6% in August 2024.

Finally, in a scenario of war escalation, the prevalence of acute malnutrition is expected to rise to 24.5% in May 2024, and surge to 46.4% in August 2024.

These projections are calculated based on data on the number of trucks carrying food supplies to Gaza, and assumptions about supply stocks and agricultural yields to estimate average caloric intake during the projection period.

Data collection was conducted from before the outbreak of war in Gaza, and during the war period from October 7, 2023, to February 7, 2024.