National Rice Prices Continue to Soar Ahead of Ramadan

National rice prices soared throughout February 2023. This figure is feared to continue climbing until before Ramadan, around March 22, 2023.

Based on monitoring from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS Nasional), the average price of all types of rice across all Indonesian markets reached Rp13,200 per kg on February 23, 2023. This is up from Rp12,850 per kg on January 23, 2023.

The price of each rice grade varies considerably. Low-quality grade I rice reached Rp12,050 per kg. Low-quality grade II reached Rp11,650 per kg.

Medium-quality grade I rice reached Rp13,250 per kg. While medium-quality grade II reached Rp13,050 per kg.

Finally, super-quality grade I soared to Rp14,600 per kg. While super-quality grade II reached Rp14,100 per kg.

What is causing the continuous surge in rice prices?

Dwi Andreas Santosa, a Professor at Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), stated that one of the causes of high rice prices is reduced production.

In his notes provided to *Katadata*, rice production from 2019 to 2022 decreased by 1.7% per year. As a result, the government's rice stock is dwindling.

Even with rice imports, Dwi believes this does not significantly reduce rice prices.

(See also: [Cadangan Beras Bulog Merosot, Mendag Berikan Izin Impor Beras 500.000 Ton](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2022/12/07/cadangan-beras-bulog-merosot-mendag-berikan-izin-impor-beras-500000-ton))

Dwi assesses that the government lacks the power to curb price fluctuations. However, the price of rice sold in Indonesia is still relatively cheap compared to rice prices in other countries.

A second cause is the lean season that occurred in January and February. This was also stated by the Chairman of the Indonesian Rice Millers Association (Perpadi), Sutarto Alimoeso.

Sutarto urged the government to intensify market operations to curb the current surge in rice prices.

“The most severe lean season was indeed around January and February. Therefore, at this time it is important for the government to be present, meaning it must truly intensify market operations,” he told *Katadata* on Friday (3/2).

He said that this situation clearly burdens the public. The government should truly replenish rice stocks in areas that are still deficient, such as DKI Jakarta, Surabaya, Semarang, and East Indonesia, through market operations.

In addition, he stated that the government must immediately issue and wisely determine the Basic Selling Price (HPP).

On the other hand, there are consequences if rice prices continue to rise.

Bhima Yudhistira, an economist at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), estimates that the rupiah could weaken by 5%-5.5% if rice prices consistently increase, especially in the run-up to Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. This will have implications for an increase in poverty rates.

"Rice is the largest contributor to the poverty line compared to other commodities. The government's target of a poverty rate of around 7.5-8.5% this year will be much more difficult if rice price stability is not addressed," said Bhima to *Katadata*.

(See also: [Harga Beras Naik, Tertinggi dalam 5 Tahun Terakhir](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2022/11/25/harga-beras-naik-tertinggi-dalam-5-tahun-terakhir))